SIG has compared year-by-year sales and estimates for the first five years of each machine’s life, using sell-in and factory shipments. It points out that in its first year both PSP and DS managed around 13 million units each, with DS slightly ahead.
Year two cumulative stats give PSP 25 million over DS’ 22 million. In Year Three the difference rises to ten million (38m to 28m). In Year Four, PSP’s lead has stretched to 15 million and to 20 million by Year Five.
Software unit sales will increase cumulatively from Year One’s 70 million units to 122 million in Year 2, and over 200 million in Year Three.
SIG stated, “Sony will likely expand the addressable market for portable gaming devices with the PSP. As the class of gamers seeking console-like gaming grows, the PSP will be the only serious alternative to Nintendo portables. In time the variety and depth of games on the PSP could attract a larger demographic than even Nintendo portables.”
It added, “Yet we must keep in mind that the PSP is Sony’s first attempt and the launch has not been without problems. Hardware pricing is probably stifling PSP adoption, and ported game selection is limited.”
SIG also points out that software revenue mix in calendar year 2005 will be Nintendo 58% / third parties 42% for DS, but Sony 24% / third parties 76% for PSP.
Odd that this reports has the DS outselling the PSP in 2005, but NPD reports that PSP was higher (estimates range from 500,000 to 1 Million). Either way, I agree that this is the year of the PSP and we will see some strong things coming from our favorite little handheld.